![]() Perhaps a best-fit line would be sigmoidal, meaning that the extremes in score prediction are more likely to be pulled towards a mean value (Bell curve, anyone?). One way to interpret this is that lower practice scores are more likely to (real) score higher than predicted, and higher practice scores are more likely to (real) score equal or lower than predicted. The caveat to this is that the best fit line without pegging the y-intercept (again, link) has only a slope of 0.4166. The above suggests that for the range that persons usually score at, NBME 19 prediction is around 15 points under the real score. Here are some sample practice scores and their correlated real scores: Practice The NBME 19 graph ( link) shows that there is a 1.0694 point increase in real score for every 1 point increase in practice score. A plot of the correct versus the practice exam score for that week shows an R2 of 0.507, indicating a strong correlation (Figure 11). I have minimal stat experience (a few extra classes on top of step 1 studies), so someone else please feel free to chime in/critique. Notably, Zanki is gaining market share from Bro's Anki deck. This is closely followed by NBME Practice Exams and Sketchy Micro (and to a lesser extent, Sketchy Pharm). As everyone suspected from anecdotal reports, NBME 19 is a terrible under-predictor of performance.ĭata on resource usage suggests UFAP (Uworld, First Ad, Pathoma) is go-to. UWSA 1 & 2 tend to overestimate the actual Step 1 score ( m 1, after pegging the intercept at 0). Eyeballing the trend-lines, it appears that the best single practice test for score prediction is the UWorld Self Assessment 2. Starting board review earlier is associated with a 2-4 point increase with each year you begin earlier.ĭesired specialty is also a great predictor of score, but this data set was collected after scores were released, and may thus affect specialty choice.Īll practice test scores showed positive correlation with the actual Step 1 score. ![]() IMGs scored similarly to US MD's (247 vs 245). Degree/Program suggests a minor 5 point jump between US DO's and US MD's (240 vs 245). Persons will see around a 10 point jump in their actual Step 1 score between the bottom 25th, middle 50's, and top 25th percentiles. According to the best-fit line, persons will generally do better than their goal score ( m = 1.0058, with the intercept pegged at 0). The biggest predictor of score (aside from practice exams) is your Goal Score and your Class Percentile. The national historical average for Step 1 is one standard deviation below the average of this data set. ![]()
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